Voting Patterns in the 2020 Election
- Elizabeth McBride
- Jul 19, 2021
- 4 min read
Demographic changes don’t account for all political changes since voter registration and turnout vary widely. The changing environment and circumstances surrounding elections also play a key role in determining the outcome. However, demographic changes taking place in the U.S. are useful for predicting new political trends. The voting patterns in the 2020 presidential election reflected the shifting racial and demographic changes in the U.S.
Demographic Changes in the U.S.
The non-Hispanic White eligible voter population has continued to decline across all 50 states. Some states experienced more significant shifts such as California which had a 60% White electorate in 2000 but had a 45% White electorate in 2018. Despite declines in all 50 states, White eligible voters still compose the majority of most states’ electorate. Over half of eligible voters are White in 47 states. California, New Mexico, and Hawaii are the only exceptions.
The Hispanic population has continued to increase and have been the primary drivers of diversification in states’ electorate. Between 2000 and 2018, Hispanic eligible voters had the largest percent point increase compared to any racial or ethnic group in 39 states. The number of Black and Asian eligible voters similarly saw an increase during this time period but it was only a slight one.
Increased Voter Turnout
The U.S. is notorious for having a relatively low voter turnout compared to other Democratic countries. The 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, however, faced sharp increases in voter turnout. The 2020 election saw a voter turnout 7 percentage points higher than in 2016. Turnout was the highest since at least 1980 according to the Pew Research Center. The tension and charged political climate surrounding each election partially contributed to this increase. It is also important to note that numerous states expanded mail-in voting (absentee voting) and early voting due to Covid. This made it significantly easier to vote for many people. Of the 10 states where voter turnout increased the most, seven conducted voting entirely or mostly by mail.
Voting Patterns in the 2020 Election
Barack Obama’s victory benefitted from the new American mainstream (the growing voter bloc of youth, people of color, and college-educated). Trump, however, benefitted from a demographic blowback of older non college-educated whites. Pew Research Center conducted a detailed study of voting patterns in the 2020 election that explained how Biden won.
Party and Ideology
Party loyalty was strong just like in previous elections. Trump received 92% support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents while Biden received 94% support among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Biden appeared to receive more overall support from Democrats than Trump did from Republicans in terms of ideological divisions within the parties. Biden received 98% of the liberal Democrat vote and 91% of the moderate or conservative Democrat vote. On the other hand, Trump received 97% of the conservative Republican vote but only 79% of the moderate or liberal Republican vote.
Age and Generation
An age gap in voter support emerged in the 2004 presidential election for the first time since 1972. This age gap is still present with more voters under the age of 30 favoring Joe Biden. The exact statistics for the 2020 election were 59% in favor of Biden and 35% in favor of Trump. Voters between the ages of 30 and 49 similarly favor Democrats. Older age groups, however, divided fairly evenly between Biden and Trump.
Looking at generations yields similar patterns. Generation Z (ages 18 to 23 in 2020) and the Millennial generation (ages 24-39 in 2020) favored Biden over Trump by 20 percentage points. Generation Xers (ages 40 to 55 in 2020) and Baby Boomers divided fairly evenly between the candidates. It was only with the Silent Generation (ages 75 to 92 in 2020) was Trump clearly favored with 58% voting for him.
Geography
Another voting trend that remained apparent in the 2020 election was the split between rural areas and suburban/urban areas. Biden received 54% of suburban votes and 66% of urban votes. Trump received an even more solid majority of rural votes with 71% of rural voters voting for him.
Religion
Voters sorted themselves among religious lines consistent with previous elections. White evangelical Protestants largely supported Trump and accounted for 34% of his voters. White non-evangelical Protestants also gave most of their support to Trump with 57% voting for him.
Conclusion
Overall, voting patterns in regards to geography, religion, age, and party ideology remained mostly consistent. Biden’s win is due to lower Republican margins among groups that helped Trump in 2016 rather than steep demographic or voting changes. There was slightly less Republican support among older generations and Whites that helped Biden. Nowhere was this margin shift more impactful than in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin all of which flipped for Biden.
References
Desilver, D. (2021). Turnout soared in 2020 as nearly two-thirds of eligible U.S. voters cast ballots for president. Pew Research Center.
Frey, W. H. (2020). Exit polls show both familiar and new voting blocs sealed Biden’s win. Brookings.
Igielnik, R., & Budiman, A. (2020). The changing racial and ethnic composition of the U.S. electorate. Pew Research Center.
Igielnik, R., Keeter, S., & Hartig, H. (2021). Behind Biden’s 2020 victory. Pew Research Center.
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